DCnU Sales: An Econometric Regression

For a long while, Matt and I had been thinking of running studies to gauge the various factors that go into comic book sales: creators, characters, price, etc. Since both of us have economics backgrounds, we decided that the way to do it would be by means of an econometric regression.An econometric regression is a method by which you can enter a dependent variable and name the independent variables. The regression would then assign coefficients to each of the independent variables. The coefficients would indicate the approximate impact of those variables. In essence, it looks something like this:

Y is the dependent variable — in this case, sales — and the Xs are the independent variables, meaning various creators and characters. The Bs are the coefficients, except for that first one, which is the constant (essentially, if none of the independent variables are met, that's the one that sticks). That last term is the error term, because obviously, it's not gonna be exact.

But Matt and I had some problems with these studies. For one thing, icv2 gives the top 300 comics each month. That's great, because these things are helped out proportionally by the size of the sample, but that's 300 titles immediately just to analyze sales for that one month. In the time since, as well, DC relaunched, and the New 52 happened, and the thing is that the New 52 had so many variables that didn't apply to other titles that couldn't be accounted for, such as the amount of publicity it got. Analyzing comic book sales with the New 52 didn't seem to make much sense to us. After all, if being a DCnU book helps, it doesn't give much predictive power or help anyone because it's not like Archaia, for example, will ever produce DCnU material.

So we thought, how about just DCnU sales? When we started, it was the start of September, and there were 11 months of sales data available, with 52 titles each (we decided to just stick to the ongoings, figuring that miniseries were different beasts). That's 571 data points (BATMAN INC came later than the other second wave launches). So we decided to do it.

How did things turn out? Let's see.

Reclaiming History: Carl Barks May Be the Greatest of All Time

Welcome to a new installment of Reclaiming History, an ongoing series where the Comics Cube! tries to balance out what the history books say and what actually happened! Click here for the archive!

Regular readers of The Comics Cube know that I've reviewed Fantagraphics' first two installments in The Complete Carl Barks Library, DONALD DUCK: LOST IN THE ANDES and UNCLE SCROOGE: ONLY A POOR OLD MAN. You also probably know I love them, and think very highly of Barks.

Here's a couple of things you probably don't know though:

1. Despite my extensive plugging, those posts get virtually no hits. Moreso, not a single person has bought them through my Amazon links at the bottom of those posts.
   
2. Those stats are backed up by my anecdotes — no matter how much I talk about it, I have had very limited success in getting  people to read those books.

I can't speak for everyone, of course, but I think it's pretty understandable that I would attribute the reasons for this to people being of the "Well, it's Disney; just how good can it really be?" mindset. Be honest. If I say "Uncle Scrooge is one of the greatest comic characters ever created," how would you react? Most likely with an "I understand, but I'm not interested," right?

And that's the thing. It's frustrating. I've said what needs to be said! It's all there — these are great characters. Barks is a master of pacing. Barks is the first to prove that you can tell really long stories without dragging. Unlike TINTIN (for example, since Tintin stories seem to lose something after growing older), UNCLE SCROOGE still holds up the older you get. Unlike other comics, you don't need to take the time period Barks' comics were made into account — they still hold up today. They're good for kids. They're good for adults. They're entertaining, while at the same time, they say something about the human condition. So why can't I get people to read this, but I can get thousands of people either arguing with me or agreeing with me about Grant Morrison's comments being right or wrong?

Maybe I'm not authoritative enough for my opinion to be conclusive. So fine. Let's pull out some facts!

Fact 1: Disney employees worked in anonymity, and yet somehow fans still found out who Barks was.

Jim Korkis' article over here sums up this story perfectly. Barks worked on multiple titles, including WALT DISNEY'S COMICS AND STORIES and UNCLE SCROOGE, along with many other ghost artists. But the fans could tell via visual cues that, much like in Archie, different stories were drawn by different people. Barks was known among the fans simply as "The Good Artist," and when two fans, Malcolm Willits and John Spicer, got together, they found him, went to his house, and published an interview with him, "outing" him to the world.

When you hear of other artists getting this kind of dedication and love from his fans, give me a call.

Fact 2: Carl Barks had free reign at Disney, when no one else did.

In COMIC BOOK COMICS by Fred Van Lente and Ryan Dunlavey, it's stated that Walt Disney managed everything to the point of actually going over some of the comics. He was very protective of the final product and was difficult to work with, to the point where employees avoided other employees that had fallen out of favor with Walt.

But not when it came to the works of Carl Barks. Barks had free reign at Disney. He didn't need to be managed.

He was that good.

Fact 3: Carl Barks may have been responsible for the bestselling single issues of all time.

Okay, work with me here. COMIC BOOK COMICS states that WALT DISNEY'S COMICS AND STORIES achieved the highest circulation of any comic book in history. But how much of that had to do with Barks? Here are three facts.

• Comic Book Superheroes Unmasked says that the highest-selling period in comics history was after World War II and before the Senate Hearings in 1954.
• Various books on comics have credited funny animals as the top-selling genre of this era.
• UNCLE SCROOGE debuted in 1952 and was the top-selling comic in 1960, selling 1,040,543 copies . It was followed by WALT DISNEY'S COMICS AND STORIES. Both were significantly ahead of the next title, and outsold the next funny animal title, MICKEY MOUSE, by almost half their sales. What did UNCLE SCROOGE and WDCS have that MICKEY MOUSE didn't? Barks.

Conclusion: The highest-selling period in comics history was most likely headlined by UNCLE SCROOGE and WALT DISNEY'S COMICS AND STORIES, both of which Barks contributed to.

Fact 4: Carl Barks influenced George Lucas and Steven Spielberg.

George Lucas wrote the introduction to ONLY A POOR OLD MAN. Bark's influence on him and Barks is well documented. The opening sequence of INDIANA JONES: RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK is taken from "The Seven Cities of Cibola," from UNCLE SCROOGE #7.

Fact 5: Carl Barks kickstarted manga.

As the myth goes, manga evolved in Japan completely separately from comics in the Western countries. And for the most part, that's true. But where it's not true is when it comes to manga's genesis. You see, in World War II, GIs in Japan read UNCLE SCROOGE comics. Christopher Couch, the editor-in-chief of CPM MANGA, had this to say:

Manga developed after World War II at the hands of one designer, Osamu Tezuka. He was influenced a great deal by the work of Carl Barks – the creator of Scrooge McDuck. Basically, Tezuka made an American art form Japanese by mixing Disney with sophisticated stories.

While I disagree with his implication that Barks' stories were not sophisticated (they seriously are as sophisticated as you, the reader, would like them to be), it is impressive that Barks' influence would spread out so strongly in the one country where the comics are often said to have developed completely independently of Western influence. In the gigantic roster of Western comics, Barks stands apart in this matter.

Just for fun, here's a greeting card Barks got from Osamu Tezuka one year.

Fact 6: Academics and scholars love Carl Barks.

Fantagraphics' collections come with essays from scholars, professors, and historians that talk about the Duck stories. Like I said, it really is as sophisticated as you would like them to be. Much like Bill Watterson's CALVIN AND HOBBES, Barks' stuff can be enjoyed by people all ages, different backgrounds, and different levels of intellectual involvement (you can read them as pure entertainment or look deeper).

The difference is that I bet if I were to recommend CALVIN AND HOBBES, a thousand of you would read that article, despite the fact that it has a talking tiger in it.

Fact 7: There is an asteroid named after Carl Barks.

Well, there is. And it was named after him in 1983, 30 years after UNCLE SCROOGE was outselling everything on the market.


So where does that leave us? Well, it's highly possible that Barks' legacy is hurt by the fact that he worked on Disney characters. He's often overlooked in "The Greatest of All Time" discussions, and I'll admit it, I think I even ranked him too low on this list.

Would Barks' legacy have been better off if he did his own stuff? Would he have been more renowned by fans if he had done superheroes instead? Would he have been better off doing anything other than Disney characters?

I don't know. What I do know is this: at one point in comics history, Carl Barks dominated the market with not one, but two books. He was so huge that even though he worked in anonymity, people distinguished him, and even found out who he was. Two of the most acclaimed and influential filmmakers of all time are strongly influenced by him. Walt Disney himself let him do whatever he wanted, and he, alone among his peers, stood out as having a significant effect on the comics of a country often purported to not be influenced by Western comics. His works have been enjoyed by children and university professors alike, and to top it all off, he has an asteroid named after him.

If he's not on top of the mountain, he's damn well close to it. And there's no good reason, as far as I can see, that he's not talked about more often. Recommending him shouldn't be this hard, simply because he was that good. Carl Barks may have been the greatest comic book creator who ever lived, which makes it more of a damn shame that he gets as overlooked as he is among comic book fandom.